Gallium Market Data: Price Today, History, Forecast, Chart, and Index

Gallium 4N (99.99% purity) in-warehouse Rotterdam is assessed at approximately $2,101/kg as of March 2026 - the highest recorded price for standard purity gallium in Western markets and an 8x premium over the concurrent China domestic price of ~$247/kg. That spread is not a logistical arbitrage. It is the structural consequence of China controlling approximately 99% of global primary gallium production and having imposed export licensing requirements since August 2023, followed by an outright US export ban in December 2024 that remains in effect under a one-year suspension through November 27, 2026.

This section covers all five dimensions of gallium market data: what the price is today, what it has been historically, where analysts forecast it is going, how to read the price chart, and how the benchmark price is assessed and published. The five pages below form the complete market intelligence reference for gallium price tracking.

What is the gallium price today?

Gallium 4N Rotterdam in-warehouse is assessed at $2,101.60/kg as of March 3, 2026, up 22% year-to-date and 123% over 12 months. China ex-works primary gallium trades at approximately 1,805 CNY/kg (~$247/kg). The $1,854/kg spread between the two markets is the export control premium - not logistics. Europe CIF main airport sits at $1,300-1,450/kg, an intermediate basis reflecting CIF delivery before Rotterdam warehouse handling.

Three parallel markets operate simultaneously: Chinese domestic buyers purchase at $247/kg with no export friction. European buyers purchase CIF at $1,300-1,450/kg. Rotterdam spot buyers pay $2,101/kg for immediately available warehouse stock. All three reference the same 4N purity gallium at different points in the supply chain and risk premium spectrum.

The current price of $2,101/kg is approximately 8x the China domestic price - a ratio with no historical precedent in gallium’s commercial history. Before August 2023, China ex-works and Rotterdam prices tracked within $50-100/kg of each other (logistics cost only). The export control mechanism created a scarcity premium that logistics cost alone cannot explain. A complete breakdown of current prices, grade differentials, recent price movement, and the Q1 2026 supply announcements (ERG-Mitsubishi Kazakhstan first output Q3 2026; DoD/ATALCO $150M equity commitment; DoE TRACE-Ga $6M program) is at gallium price today.

What does gallium’s price history show?

Gallium prices have moved through four distinct eras. From 2000 to 2010, primary gallium traded at $200-400/kg in a thin, research-dominated market. In 2011, smartphone manufacturing and government LED mandates triggered a spike to approximately $1,000/kg - then the all-time high. From 2012 to 2022, capacity expansion and demand cycles produced a range of $124/kg (2018 trough) to $510/kg (June 2022 peak). Since August 2023, China’s export controls split the market into two separate series: China domestic stable at $230-280/kg and Western import rising to $2,101/kg.

The single most important fact in gallium price history is the August 2023 fork: from that date, one kilogram of gallium carries two prices depending entirely on which side of the Chinese border it sits. The China domestic price reflects production economics. The Western import price reflects scarcity of supply that has cleared export controls.

Every year-by-year data point from 2000 to 2026 - with USGS primary/refined split data for 2016-2018, monthly export collapse data for August-October 2023, and the China-Rotterdam spread table from pre-2023 through early 2026 - is at gallium price history.

What is the gallium price forecast through 2030?

The base case forecast for Rotterdam 4N gallium is $1,500-1,800/kg by 2030, declining gradually from the ~$2,100/kg early-2026 peak as Western production capacity comes online. The bull case ($2,500-3,500/kg) requires China’s November 2026 export ban suspension to lapse without renewal and Western production projects to miss their timelines. The bear case ($1,200-1,500/kg) requires either China lifting controls entirely or a semiconductor demand downturn. The base case sits between, assuming gradual Western supply ramp and continued licensing rather than outright prohibition.

Four Western production projects form the supply side of the base case: Rio Tinto / Indium Corporation in Quebec (40 mt/year target, demo 2027, full scale 2028-2029), Nyrstar in Tennessee (40 mt/year feasibility stage), Alcoa / JAGA in Western Australia (15-20 mt/year, FID late 2025), and DoD / ATALCO (50 mt/year, 2026-2028). At full buildout, these projects would supply approximately 140-170 mt/year - roughly 18-22% of the 2030 forecast demand of 753 mt. Western supply independence remains a 2030-2035 story, not a 2026-2028 one.

The November 27, 2026 expiry of China’s export ban suspension is the single highest-impact near-term price event. If it lapses, prices re-spike on the August 2023 precedent (+36% within weeks). If it extends, prices continue their gradual base case decline. GaN power device demand at 42% CAGR (Yole Group, $355M in 2024 to ~$3B by 2030) and global EV sales (17M+ units in 2024) sustain the demand side regardless of supply scenario. The full scenario analysis, supply pipeline, substitution risk (SiC vs. GaN), and recycling economics are at gallium price forecast.

How do you read the gallium price chart?

Any gallium price chart requires two series from August 2023 onward: the China ex-works primary price (USGS basis, approximately 3N-4N grade) and the Rotterdam in-warehouse 4N price (Fastmarkets basis). Before August 2023, the two lines tracked within $50-100/kg. After August 2023, they forked sharply. A chart showing only one series misrepresents the market for buyers in the other geography.

The five chart annotations that explain roughly 80% of all price action from 2023 to 2026:

Reading a gallium chart also requires knowing the purity grade (primary 3N vs. refined 4N) and the publication source. USGS annual averages (free, China ex-works primary) and Fastmarkets Rotterdam in-warehouse (paywalled, 4N) are the two most commonly cited series - they measure different things and should never be plotted on the same axis without a secondary scale. A chart showing the $240/kg June 2023 USGS value alongside the $2,101/kg March 2026 Fastmarkets value on a single axis would suggest an 8x move in a single comparable price series, which is both correct for Western buyers and misleading about Chinese domestic conditions simultaneously.

The interactive dual-axis chart with all historical data points, event annotations, and source labeling is at gallium price chart.

Which organizations publish the gallium price index and how is it assessed?

Gallium is not traded on any commodity exchange - there are no LME futures, no standardized contract, no visible order book. All price discovery happens through bilateral negotiation, with price reporting agencies (PRAs) publishing assessed prices based on market surveys, transaction evidence, and intelligence from market participants. Argus Media (twice weekly, 4N and 6N, China ex-works and Rotterdam basis) is the most commonly referenced benchmark in supply contracts. Fastmarkets (weekly, 4N, Rotterdam) is the second-most cited.

Long-term gallium supply contracts (1-3 year terms) use the Argus or Fastmarkets assessed price as the formula base for quarterly pricing resets. A typical contract clause reads: “price per kg = Argus gallium 4N ex-works China quarterly average + agreed premium.” When buyers and sellers reference “the gallium index price,” they mean the Argus or Fastmarkets assessment.

The absence of exchange trading has two practical consequences: there is no public real-time price, and there is no hedging mechanism. A chip manufacturer cannot lock in a gallium price for 12 months through futures contracts as an aluminum buyer can on the LME. The only hedging tool is a fixed-price supply contract, which transfers price risk to the counterparty. Given the 5x price move from 2022 to 2025, fixed-price multi-year gallium contracts are now rare. Full methodology, geographic basis analysis, the China domestic-Western spread decomposition, and free vs. paywalled data sources are at gallium price index.

What drives gallium prices?

Gallium prices are driven by three variables in rough order of current influence: China’s export control policy (dominant, 2023-present), downstream compound semiconductor demand growth (structural, ongoing), and Western production capacity development (emerging, 2026-2030). Before 2023, supply-demand balance driven by alumina refinery output and GaAs/GaN device demand was the primary driver. Since 2023, policy has overtaken fundamentals.

China export policy determines the size of the China domestic-to-Western-import spread. When China grants more export licenses, more gallium reaches Western warehouses, inventory builds, and the scarcity premium compresses. When China tightens licensing or imposes outright prohibitions, Western inventory depletes, and the premium expands. The November 2026 expiry of the current ban suspension is the single highest-impact near-term event for Western gallium prices.

Compound semiconductor demand sets the floor. GaN power device demand grows at 42% CAGR through 2030 (Yole Group). 5G base station deployment continues globally. EV on-board charger adoption tracks EV sales growth (17M+ units in 2024). LED lighting is mature but not declining. These demand trends mean that even if China normalizes exports entirely, demand growth at 6.5% CAGR (total gallium, 549 mt in 2025 to 753 mt in 2030) ensures that prices do not return to the $140-240/kg lows of 2019-2023. The demand floor under gallium prices is structurally higher than a decade ago.

Western production provides the long-run price ceiling - if non-Chinese supply reaches 150+ mt/year by 2030 (Rio Tinto, Nyrstar, ATALCO, Alcoa/JAGA combined), the export control premium must compress because buyers have an alternative. That alternative is not available before 2027 at the earliest, which explains why prices remain at record levels despite three years of announced Western investment. See gallium in compound semiconductors, gallium in 5G, and US critical minerals policy for the demand and geopolitical context behind each driver.

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