Gallium Market Data: Price Today, History, Forecast, Chart, and Index
Gallium 4N (99.99% purity) in-warehouse Rotterdam is assessed at approximately $2,101/kg as of March 2026 - the highest recorded price for standard purity gallium in Western markets and an 8x premium over the concurrent China domestic price of ~$247/kg. That spread is not a logistical arbitrage. It is the structural consequence of China controlling approximately 99% of global primary gallium production and having imposed export licensing requirements since August 2023, followed by an outright US export ban in December 2024 that remains in effect under a one-year suspension through November 27, 2026.
This section covers all five dimensions of gallium market data: what the price is today, what it has been historically, where analysts forecast it is going, how to read the price chart, and how the benchmark price is assessed and published.
| Data Type | Current Snapshot | Detail Page |
|---|---|---|
| Price today | $2,101/kg Rotterdam 4N; ~$247/kg China ex-works | Gallium price today |
| Price history | $124/kg (2018 low) → $1,000/kg (2011 peak) → $2,101/kg (2026 high) | Gallium price history |
| Price forecast | Base case $1,500-1,800/kg by 2030; bull case $2,500-3,500/kg | Gallium price forecast |
| Price chart | Dual-series: China ex-works + Rotterdam in-whs, 2016-2026, annotated | Gallium price chart |
| Price index | Argus (2x/week), Fastmarkets (weekly), Asian Metal (daily); paywalled except Asian Metal | Gallium price index |
What is the gallium price today?
Gallium 4N Rotterdam in-warehouse is assessed at $2,101.60/kg as of March 3, 2026, up 22% year-to-date and 123% over 12 months. China ex-works primary gallium trades at approximately 1,805 CNY/kg (~$247/kg). The $1,854/kg spread between the two markets is the export control premium - not logistics. Europe CIF main airport sits at $1,300-1,450/kg, an intermediate basis reflecting CIF delivery before Rotterdam warehouse handling.
| Grade / Basis | Price | YTD 2026 | 12-Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4N - Rotterdam in-warehouse | $2,101.60/kg | +22.00% | +123.46% |
| 4N - Europe CIF main airport | $1,300-1,450/kg | - | - |
| 4N - China ex-works | ~$247/kg (1,805 CNY) | +9.4% (mo/mo) | Stable |
| 6N - Rotterdam (Argus assessed) | Premium to 4N | - | Paywalled |
Three parallel markets operate simultaneously: Chinese domestic buyers purchase at $247/kg with no export friction. European buyers purchase CIF at $1,300-1,450/kg. Rotterdam spot buyers pay $2,101/kg for immediately available warehouse stock. All three reference the same 4N purity gallium at different points in the supply chain and risk premium spectrum.
A complete breakdown of current prices, grade differentials, recent price movement, and the Q1 2026 supply announcements: Gallium price today
What does gallium's price history show?
Gallium prices have moved through four distinct eras. From 2000 to 2010, primary gallium traded at $200-400/kg in a thin, research-dominated market. In 2011, smartphone manufacturing and government LED mandates triggered a spike to approximately $1,000/kg - then the all-time high. From 2012 to 2022, capacity expansion and demand cycles produced a range of $124/kg (2018 trough) to $510/kg (June 2022 peak). Since August 2023, China's export controls split the market into two separate series: China domestic stable at $230-280/kg and Western import rising to $2,101/kg.
| Era | Price Range | Dominant Driver |
|---|---|---|
| 2000-2008 | $200-400/kg | Early GaAs telecom; thin market |
| 2009-2011 | $300-1,000/kg | Smartphone + LED demand surge |
| 2012-2018 | $124-477/kg | Refinery oversupply; correction |
| 2019-2022 | $140-510/kg | COVID disruption + 5G/EV demand |
| Aug 2023-present | $233-280/kg (China) / $470-2,101/kg (Rotterdam) | Export control market split |
Every year-by-year data point from 2000 to 2026, with USGS primary/refined split data for 2016-2018, monthly export collapse data for August-October 2023, and the China-Rotterdam spread table: Gallium price history
What is the gallium price forecast through 2030?
The base case forecast for Rotterdam 4N gallium is $1,500-1,800/kg by 2030, declining gradually from the ~$2,100/kg early-2026 peak as Western production capacity comes online. The bull case ($2,500-3,500/kg) requires China's November 2026 export ban suspension to lapse without renewal and Western production projects to miss their timelines. The bear case ($1,200-1,500/kg) requires either China lifting controls entirely or a semiconductor demand downturn.
| Scenario | 2026 | 2028 | 2030 | Pivot Assumption |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $2,200-2,500/kg | $2,500-3,000/kg | $2,500-3,500/kg | Nov 2026 ban reverts; Western production slips |
| Base | $1,900-2,200/kg | $1,700-2,000/kg | $1,500-1,800/kg | Suspension extends; 80-100 mt/yr Western supply by 2029 |
| Bear | $1,500-1,900/kg | $1,200-1,600/kg | $1,200-1,500/kg | China lifts controls or substitution accelerates |
Four Western production projects form the supply side of the base case: Rio Tinto / Indium Corporation in Quebec (40 mt/year target, demo 2027, full scale 2028-2029), Nyrstar in Tennessee (40 mt/year feasibility stage), Alcoa / JAGA in Western Australia (15-20 mt/year, FID late 2025), and DoD / ATALCO (50 mt/year, 2026-2028). At full buildout, these projects would supply approximately 140-170 mt/year - roughly 18-22% of the 2030 forecast demand of 753 mt.
Full scenario analysis, supply pipeline, substitution risk (SiC vs. GaN), and recycling economics: Gallium price forecast
How do you read the gallium price chart?
Any gallium price chart requires two series from August 2023 onward: the China ex-works primary price (USGS basis, approximately 3N-4N grade) and the Rotterdam in-warehouse 4N price (Fastmarkets basis). Before August 2023, the two lines tracked within $50-100/kg. After August 2023, they forked sharply. A chart showing only one series misrepresents the market for buyers in the other geography.
The Five Annotations That Explain 80% of All Price Action
| Annotation | Date | Effect on Chart |
|---|---|---|
| Export licensing announced | July 3, 2023 | Both lines spike +36% within days |
| Licensing effective | August 1, 2023 | Lines begin to diverge; Western line climbs |
| US export ban imposed | December 3, 2024 | Western line spikes; China line unchanged |
| Ban suspended 1 year | November 9, 2025 | Western line drops ~15%, then resumes rise |
| Current level | March 2026 | Rotterdam all-time high ~$2,101/kg |
Reading a gallium chart also requires knowing the purity grade (primary 3N vs. refined 4N) and the publication source. USGS annual averages (free, China ex-works primary) and Fastmarkets Rotterdam in-warehouse (paywalled, 4N) are the two most commonly cited series - they measure different things and should never be plotted on the same axis without a secondary scale.
Interactive dual-axis chart with all historical data points, event annotations, and source labeling: Gallium price chart
Which organizations publish the gallium price index and how is it assessed?
Gallium is not traded on any commodity exchange - there are no LME futures, no standardized contract, no visible order book. All price discovery happens through bilateral negotiation, with price reporting agencies (PRAs) publishing assessed prices based on market surveys, transaction evidence, and intelligence from market participants.
| Publisher | Grades | Frequency | Basis | Access |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argus Media | 4N and 6N | Twice weekly | EXW China (CNY); FOB China (USD); Rotterdam in-whs (USD) | Paywalled |
| Fastmarkets | 4N | Weekly | Rotterdam in-whs (USD); China domestic (CNY) | Paywalled |
| Asian Metal | 4N | Daily | FOB China (USD); EXW China (CNY) | Partially free |
| Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) | 4N | Daily | China domestic spot (CNY) | Partially free |
| USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries | 4N annual avg | Annual | China ex-works / US import | Free (PDF) |
Long-term gallium supply contracts (1-3 year terms) use the Argus or Fastmarkets assessed price as the formula base for quarterly pricing resets. A typical contract clause reads: "price per kg = Argus gallium 4N ex-works China quarterly average + agreed premium." When buyers and sellers reference "the gallium index price," they mean the Argus or Fastmarkets assessment.
Full methodology, geographic basis analysis, the China domestic-Western spread decomposition, and free vs. paywalled data sources: Gallium price index
What drives gallium prices?
Gallium prices are driven by three variables in rough order of current influence: China's export control policy (dominant, 2023-present), downstream compound semiconductor demand growth (structural, ongoing), and Western production capacity development (emerging, 2026-2030). Before 2023, supply-demand balance driven by alumina refinery output and GaAs/GaN device demand was the primary driver. Since 2023, policy has overtaken fundamentals.
Determines the size of the China domestic-to-Western-import spread. When China grants more export licenses, more gallium reaches Western warehouses, inventory builds, and the scarcity premium compresses. When China tightens licensing or imposes outright prohibitions, Western inventory depletes and the premium expands. The November 2026 expiry of the current ban suspension is the single highest-impact near-term event for Western gallium prices.
Sets the demand floor. GaN power device demand grows at 42% CAGR through 2030 (Yole Group). 5G base station deployment continues globally. EV on-board charger adoption tracks EV sales growth (17M+ units in 2024). LED lighting is mature but not declining. These demand trends mean that even if China normalizes exports entirely, demand growth at 6.5% CAGR (549 mt in 2025 to 753 mt in 2030) ensures prices do not return to the $140-240/kg lows of 2019-2023.
Provides the long-run price ceiling. If non-Chinese supply reaches 150+ mt/year by 2030 (Rio Tinto, Nyrstar, ATALCO, Alcoa/JAGA combined), the export control premium must compress because buyers have an alternative. That alternative is not available before 2027 at the earliest, which explains why prices remain at record levels despite three years of announced Western investment.
See gallium in compound semiconductors, gallium in 5G, and US critical minerals policy for the demand and geopolitical context behind each driver.
Market Data Section: Full Coverage
Current 4N and 6N assessed prices; YTD/12mo/vs-baseline comparisons; grade-by-geography breakdown; Q1 2026 supply news; comparable prices for germanium, indium, and cobalt.
Complete data 2000-2026; four-era narrative; 40-row price table; 2011 spike; 2016-2018 primary/refined split; 2020-2022 COVID cycle; 2023 export control fork; China-Rotterdam spread anatomy.
Bull/base/bear scenarios 2026-2030; Western supply pipeline (Rio Tinto, Nyrstar, ATALCO, Alcoa); GaN demand drivers; November 2026 binary risk; SiC substitution limits; recycling economics.
Dual-series visualization guide; 40-row underlying data table; 8-event annotation layer; gallium vs. germanium comparison; chart format and source explanation.
Argus/Fastmarkets/Asian Metal/SMM/USGS methodology; geographic basis decomposition; contract usage (indexed vs. fixed vs. spot); why gallium lacks exchange trading; free vs. paywalled source guide.